Sustainability is discussed in various ways as intra- and inter-generational equity - meeting present the needs without compromising the needs of future generations. But what is meant by future generations?[1] We do not currently have a sense of concern or obligation for future welfare, beyond say four or five generations. But many societies have existed for much longer than that - several thousands of years and major cities in Europe, north Africa, the middle East and Asia have been in existence for at least two thousand years. Thus at the very least we should be considering a period of 1000 years. We can then determine what we have to consider over 1000 years: Land use, food production, soil health, water quality and quantity, human habitation, ecosystem health, evolution and robustness, biodiversity, waste disposal (particularly hazardous waste), climate change, resource use and even technological direction are all suitable for long term consideration. The probability and consequences of negative impacts on the environment and society over the short, medium and long term can be assessed and mitigated, particularly those risks which have major consequences[2].
In assessing risks, systems thinking is critical to enable the linkages between systems to be identified and for planning to take all systems into account. the current global situation already provides some risks with high probabilities and major consequences: · Global warming
· Global population
· Fossil fuel energy depletion
· Water resources
· Soil health
· Urbanisation
· Resource depletion
· Waste management
· Production resource use
Sustainability has major implications for engineers. Long term thinking on resources and
paradigm shifts in economics and technology design are necessary. Improving the quality of
life without merely increasing the quantity of goods is required. Engineers must become more
effective at identifying real needs rather than wants, particularly technology driven “needs”.
This will require them to become problem framers, so they help decide on the most effective
directions that technology takes[3].
First a basic concept of what we mean by sustainability needs to be considered. Although it is discussed in various ways as intra- and inter-generational equity - ensuring that the needs of the current generation are met without compromising the needs of future generations and 'ensuring quality of life', the definitions lack a sense of future - there is no clear understanding of what is meant by future generations. Economists argue that we care about our children, their children and possibly their children, but beyond four generations, we do not have a sense of concern or obligation for future welfare. Maori would identify five generations as the minimum period of thinking. However, in the context of future society, four or eight generations (100-200 years) is relatively short. Many societies have existed for much longer than that - some for thousands of years (Europe, Middle East, China, India, Egypt). Many of the major cities in Europe, north Africa, the middle East and Asia have been in existence for over two thousand years; some for over 5,000 ...