BUSINESS MODEL

Business Model

Business Modeling

Introduction

Analysis is very important factors when one is estimating or forecasting something. Cost and time is the most important factors when forecasting any activity as any lack in them can increase the cost along with the time. In this paper we will analyze two parts in form of Summarized Report with the all logics that has been studied in the class.

Summary of Q1

The data in the seasonal factors sheet is that the trend has been increasing in all quarters which make an average of 2.08. The most enhanced in Q1 with 2.49 which indicates that 2.49% chances of the seasonal factor, as such, manifests itself in many areas of business. For example, sickness during viral seasons is quite logical to reach a maximum. Accounting Services reaches its peak at the end of the fiscal year, peak sales of medicines during this season. Many businesses, products and statistical data are subject to seasonal changes. For the prepared trader, this may mean a good opportunity for trade.

For many pharmaceutical traders it is important to know the technical or fundamental factors. Let's look at the definition of each group of factors, and how it relates to the seasonal trade:

Technical analysis - the study of price trends and patterns. Often, this implies a graphical analysis, though, to be precise, graphical analysis is a subsection of the technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis is concerned with the analysis of the dynamics of supply and demand, rather than price charts. So, what's it like to seasonal analysis? There are two ways to look at it. On the one hand, you can say that seasonal analysis is fundamental in nature, because it assesses the demand and supply at any time of year. In the examples we looked at seasonality in terms of fundamental factors. In the examples in spread sheet, and the crop production cycles, weather and consumer demand is certainly the fundamental factors that analyze supply and demand.One can watch for seasonal trading from a technical point of view, because - it is the analysis of pricing models on the market. These pricing models may be repeated and, accordingly, trading opportunities. Identification of repetitive patterns is the basis of technical analysis, so we can find a seasonal analysis as a form of technical analysis. Keep in mind that there is a right or wrong approach to this issue. All traders have their own preferences, and can have its own individual idea of the hay trade. However, there are some pretty important things to consider.

Exponential smoothing is a special case of weighted moving average forecast, where now the weights decrease exponentially, giving more weight to more recent periods. You need a smoothing constant () which takes values between 0 and 1, choosing subjectively. Advantage: needs a small amount of historical data. F t = Ft-1 + (A t-1 - F t-1) where At = Ft = Forecast Actual value = smoothing constant.

The method then proposed that the forecast for period t +1 is defined as follows: ...