Data Analysis for social Policy
Data Analysis for social Policy
Question 1
Year
Annual %
Index
Year
Annual %
Index
2011
4.8
239.4
1990
9.3
129.9
2010
4.8
228.4
1989
7.7
118.8
2009
2.4
218
1988
6.8
110.3
2008
0.9
212.9
1987
3.7
103.3
2007
4
210.9
1986
3.7
99.6
2006
4.4
202.7
1985
5.7
96
2005
2.2
194.1
1984
4.6
90.9
2004
3.5
189.9
1983
5.3
86.9
2003
2.8
183.5
1982
5.4
82.5
2002
2.9
178.5
1981
12
78.3
2001
0.7
173.4
1980
15.1
69.9
2000
2.9
172.2
1979
17.2
60.7
1999
1.8
167.3
1978
8.4
51.8
1998
2.8
164.4
1977
12.1
47.8
1997
3.6
160
1976
15.1
42.6
1996
2.5
154.4
1975
24.9
37
1995
3.2
150.7
1974
19.1
29.6
1994
2.9
146
1973
10.6
24.9
1993
1.9
141.9
1972
7.7
22.5
1992
2.6
139.2
1971
9
20.9
1991
4.5
135.7
1970
7.9
19.2
1970 is the base year of the chosen index.
The series will be re - based because keeping the first year of the series i.e. 1970 as the base year, will provide with the increasing or decreasing growth rates from the beginning and keeping other middle year as the base year will not be able to provide a continuous growth rate increase or decrease.
1970 - 1980 = 69.9 / 19.2 *100 = 264%
1970 - 2000 = 172.2 / 19.2 *100 = 796%.
- 2000 = 172.2 / 129.9*100 = 32.5%
The formula for calculating the Inflation Rate looks like this: ((B - A)/A)*100 Where "A" is the Starting CPI and "B" is the ending CPI.
Year
Inflation rate
Year
Inflation rate
1970
8.8541667
1991
2.579219
1971
7.6555024
1992
1.939655
1972
10.666667
1993
2.889359
1973
18.875502
1994
3.219178
1974
25
1995
2.455209
1975
15.135135
1996
3.626943
1976
12.206573
1997
2.75
1977
8.3682008
1998
1.76399
1978
17.181467
1999
2.92887
1979
15.156507
2000
0.696864
1980
12.017167
2001
2.941176
1981
5.3639847
2002
2.80112
1982
5.3333333
2003
3.487738
1983
4.6029919
2004
2.21169
1984
5.6105611
2005
4.430706
1985
3.75
2006
4.045387
1986
3.7148594
2007
0.948317
1987
6.7763795
2008
2.395491
1988
7.7062557
2009
4.770642
1989
9.3434343
2010
4.816112
1990
4.4649731
2011
9.87351
The inflation rates behavior since 1970 shows that there is an average behavior of he inflation is from 0% - 10% but there is an outlier exists between 1970 - 1980 that has changed the mean inflation rate as well. Otherwise, the inflation remains consistent especially from 1980 - 2011 i.e. from 0% - 5%.
Time period
Average Infaltion
1970 - 1980
13.7378989
1980 - 1990
5.6666773
1990 - 2000
2.4849287
2000 - 2010
3.883808091
The average inflation in the above four different time periods is found to be continuously varying. Initially, since 1970 - 1980 it was high reaching a 13.7% record and then after 1980 it remained stable from 2.5% to 5.6% which is quite normal in a ten year decade.
Question 2
i. At x = 22 then z -value = 0.5
At x = 16 then z - value = -1
At x = 20 then z - value = 0
P(20< X< 22) = 0.1914
P(X > 16) = 0.8413
P(X < 16) = 0.1586
P (16
P(0< Z < Z1*) = 0.4582 then Z1* = 1.73
P( Z ...