Analysis of Results

[Name of the Institute]Analysis of Results

Results for Kenya

Dependent Variable: LN_HDI

Method: Least Squares

03/14/13 Time: 14:44

Sample (adjusted): 1999 2010

Included observations: 12 after adjustments

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.  

C

0.229375

1.838275

0.124777

0.9042

LN_GLP

0.009873

0.059550

0.165787

0.8730

LN_MFI

0.075079

0.080559

0.931976

0.3824

LN_ACTBORR

-0.032337

0.120705

-0.267905

0.7965

LN_GDP

-0.199687

0.706756

-0.282540

0.7857

R-squared

0.399112

    Mean dependent var

-0.305501

Adjusted R-squared

0.055747

    S.D. dependent var

0.043621

S.E. of regression

0.042388

    Akaike info criterion

-3.189582

Sum squared resid

0.012577

    Schwarz criterion

-2.987537

Log likelihood

24.13749

    Hannan-Quinn criter.

-3.264386

F-statistic

1.162354

    Durbin-Watson stat

1.880480

Prob(F-statistic)

0.403113

The first regression results which is a time series regression represent the degree to which human development index for Kenya is explained by the gross loan portfolio, micro finance investments, active borrowers, and gross domestic product of Kenya. As the model is log linear, the estimated coefficients are the percentage change in the dependent variable due to the corresponding independent variables. The average value of Human development Index in Kenya when the gross loan portfolio, micro finances investment, active borrowers, and gross domestic product remains unchanged is found to be 0.229, t statistics for this intercept of regression is 0.12 which is insignificant with p value 0.90. This insignificance implies that the average value of human development index is under or over estimated when the explanatory variables are kept constant. Human development index increases by 0.009 almost 0.9% for one unit increase in gross loan portfolio. One unit increase in micro finance investments raises the human development index by 8%. Human development index of Kenya improves 7% for if there is a one unit increase in micro finance investments. There is a negative relationship between the active borrowers and the human development index in Kenya, as confirmed by the sign of the coefficient of active borrowers. Human development index decreases 3% for one unit increase in the active borrowers. The last coefficient in this regression is not at all matching the a priori information. It depicts that the gross domestic product of Kenya is negatively related to the human development s index which is contradictory with the theory. Empirical results show that ...