Logistic Risk Analysis

Logistic Risk Analysis

Introduction

The last thirty years there is much talk about the method "DELPHI". The innovative study was to achieve a consensus among various experts on a topic of military defense of U.S. It bears the name "DELPHI" from the Greek "DELPHI", because it helps to prediction. In initial studies was to attempt this method to give answers to questions about the future and where the issue was complex and uncertain (Delbecq, Andre, Andrew & Ven, 2005).

Discussion

Process 'DELPHI'

The Carey (2005) summarizes the sequence of processes (events) that followed in accordance with the "DELPHI", as he saw the founder of Helmer:

Participants are asked, often remain unknown to each other, to express their opinion on a particular issue. Their opinion is writing, to then prepare a questionnaire. Thus, for example refer to the activities proposed to be an issue or make predictions for the future on the subject.

Then asked the participants in research to evaluate all ideas (opinions) expressed at the previous stage. The evaluation This is done by some criterion, eg their importance, likelihood of success etc.

Concentrated on their proposals and the process the researcher giving them uniform wording and explaining what it takes.

Then each team member gets a new questionnaire, along with Summary of responses (views) given for each question. If the views of some were the minority in the first stage, asked to review the matter and revise, if possible, the view or justify a different opinion.

Collected again by the researcher suggestions of team members and resume editing and new summaries of responses.

Each team member gets from the new copy of the investigator questionnaire and informed summary of all responses of the round, even those who have different views. Each member is entitled, once again, or not to revise his opinion.

Finally, the investigator collects copies of the questionnaire last round and recaps the final report (report) (Gattorna, 2008).

Below is contact the researcher with each team member in a process questions, clarifications and feedback (feedback), to reduce to a minimum the possibility of misinterpretation of various views. Later, several researchers formulated and implemented several changes, so it can be used in diverse situations (Rodgers, 2002). The "DELPHI" can give the researcher more objective means:

(1) assessment of the different opinions on with the goals,

(2) to give priorities to prioritize research objectives,

(3) to determine the degree of unanimity exists on the target.

Generally, "DELPHI" could help a researcher to evaluate the "what is "and" what ought to be "a situation, taking into account organizational conditions, goals, etc. The In education the "DELPHI" has used several times to lay down the objectives (Foley, Paul, Green & Masser, 2004).

Implementation of the DELPHI for Earthquake Disaster

The technique "DELPHI" differs for earthquake disaster is from traditional ways of collecting information (by mail, personal contact, by phone), which often consulted a sample of people who have marginal features to answer questions on this matter (Linstone, Turoff & Mullen, 2000). In the case of "DELPHI" sought responses from people especially, who own the ...