TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY

Tourism and Hospitality Research Methods

Tourism and Hospitality Research Methods

Section A: Comment critically on the advantages and limitations of the Delphi method for tourism demand forecasting.

Advantages of the Delphi method

The essence of this method is that with a series of sequential actions - surveys, interviews, brainstorming sessions - to achieve the maximum consensus in determining the perfect solution. Analysis using Delphi method conducted in different stages; the results processed by statistical methods. The basic principle of the method is that a number of independent experts, evaluate and better predict the outcome than the structured group (group of) individuals. Avoiding open conflict between the carriers as contradictory positions eliminates direct contact between an expert and, therefore, the group effect, which occurs when the joint work and consists in adapting to the majority. It makes possible to conduct a survey extraterritorially without collecting experts in one place (for example, by email) (Rowe, Wright, 2001, pp. 33). The subjects included are:

Research groups, each responsible individually in writing.

Organizing group - brings together the opinions of experts (Rowe, Wright, 2001, pp. 33).

The main advantage of this method is the ability to receive detailed, transparent and verifiable results. Unlike regular panel, meetings iterrativny Delphi method does not give the effect of respected and active members on the other, but also eliminates the problem of all the experts to gather at one time in one place. The advantages of the Delphi method can highlight the following:

Removes the influence they may have different individuals in personal interaction, allowing the systematic integration of the views of a group.

It is free of bias and disadvantages of group meetings.

Reduce peer pressure and ensures that all views represented in the final answer.

Solves the problems associated with open discussion group pressure, the effect of the majority opinion, etc.

Does not require the formal constitution of the group, which affects more rapid, inexpensive and experts to participate physically remote locations.

The written response from the experts necessary to reflect and think about the complexity the problem.

The conduct of the group is proactive, since the respondents cannot react to the ideas expressed by others.

The prediction error of a group of experts on a subject is always less than the average of the opinions individual people who comprise it, as they take advantage of group work and individual work.

It is the basis of a well-defined and structured process that can be defined quantitatively.

The advantages of its application to tourism have explained by the possibility offered to collect different experiences, both at sectoral and public, business and education.

Allows the formation of a criterion with greater objectivity.

The consensus achieved on the basis of the criteria is very reliable.

The task of decisions based on the criteria of experts, obtained by the latter has a high probability of being efficient.

Allows evaluate decision alternatives.

Prevents conflicts between experts to be anonymous (which is a prerequisite for the success of the method) and creates a climate conducive to creativity.

The expert feels fully involved in solving the problem and facilitates its ...