[The future environmental impacts of the building of Turkish dams on the Euphrates River]

by

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would take this opportunity to thank my research supervisor, family and friends for their support and guidance without which this research would not have been possible.

DECLARATION

I, [type your full first names and surname here], declare that the contents of this dissertation/thesis represent my own unaided work, and that the dissertation/thesis has not previously been submitted for academic examination towards any qualification. Furthermore, it represents my own opinions and not necessarily those of the University.

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ABSTRACT

New investigation techniques for detecting hydro-meteorological data trends are required due to significant changes in precipitation and stream flow affecting the planning and operation of water resources. In this study, the trends analysis is carried out for the observation of climatic and hydrologic parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation and stream flow in the Euphrates Basin located in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (referred to as GAP from the Turkish acronym for Güneydogu Anadolu Projesi) region, which is the most important integrated water resources project in Turkey. The relationships between different meteorological and hydrological parameters in the basin are evaluated using the overlay mapping technique, popular in various engineering disciplines. The significant trends are indicated on the thematic maps and the visible changes are observed in different parts of the basin. Decreasing trends are detected in minimum stream flow, while the increasing trends in the annual mean and maximum temperature and in the annual mean and maximum humidity parameters are observed for many stations. The study concludes that the overlay mapping technique can be used effectively to observe the climatic changes and trends in hydrometeorological variables. The results are expected to help water resources managers and policy makers in decision-making for better planning in water resources planning and management.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTII

DECLARATIONIII

ABSTRACTIV

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION6

Background of the Study7

Importance of the Study10

CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW12

Euphrates12

Southeastern Anatolia Project15

Political/ecological threshold for the Euphrates17

Turkey's Water Budget19

The Economic Situation Of Southeast Anatolia23

The Southeast Anatolia Project And The Current Situation24

The Environmental Dimension Of Gap And Its Sustainability26

Special Features Of The Euphrates And The Tigris Basin27

The Economically Irrigable Lands Of Turkey, Syria And Iraq29

Conflict, cooperation, and national security along international rivers31

The downstream state's dependence34

CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY38

Data38

Trend detection tests42

Overlay Mapping Technique (OMT)44

CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND ANALYSIS46

Discussion55

Domestic concerns and the water conflict over the Euphrates62

Implications of unfavourable hydroclimatic conditions84

CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION87

Future Research92

REFERENCES93

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

It is well known that there are significant changes in precipitation and stream flow, which may affect water resource planning and operation. Recent climate change studies have shown significant impacts on hydrological cycle components such as stream flow, precipitation, evapotranspiration and temperature (Arnell, 1999, 66; Lettenmaier et al., 1999, 20; Payne et al., 2004, 20). The increasing impact of climate change on flood occurrences, landslides, droughts, reduction in agricultural products, pollution, hydro-electric energy shortage and water scarcity reinforce the need to determine the relationship between climatic changes and hydrological system performances. The adjustment to climate change is possible through climatic parameters on which there are effects by human activities ...