The Effect of Oil Price Volatility on US, Chinese And Indian GDP

By

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to take this opportunity to thank my dissertation supervisor Dr. Richard Osborne who has always shown confidence in me. He has offered his patience, remarks, propositions and understanding. Here I would also like to mention my parents who have always believed in me for all my hard work. My family, including my parents, brother and sister have endlessly supported me during my life and academics. This has helped me in making positive decisions for my life. I would also mention my peers and co-workers and appreciate their collaboration and expert advice on every circumstance. I am also grateful towards my University and my Department, the administrators, faculty members and fellow students for their support throughout this study.

DECLARATION

I declare that the material stated in this dissertation/thesis is original and does not present work of any other scholar or research study conducted in the past. Material in this study is not partially or completely published elsewhere and collected only for the purpose of this study. I also acknowledge that I have complete understanding of the requirements, guidelines, regulations and procedures of the University with respect to the endowment of higher education degree and my research work. Here, I would also like to take the opportunity to declare that I have almost exclusively followed the requirements, guidelines, regulations and procedures of the University regarding this research study.

I certify that the work presented in the dissertation is my own unless referenced

Signature..........................................

Date.....................................

ABSTRACT

The price of crude oil is highly volatile and every country around the world imports crude oil mostly to fuel its survival. The recent geopolitical changes in the Middle Eastern countries and the strong economic growth of Asia have had a significant impact on the price of crude oil which increased the import costs for many countries and disturbed their economic growth. This study is an examination of the variability of crude oil prices in a countries economic growth. The researcher has analyzed the crude oil prices and the GDP's of US, China and India for the last 10 years by using the Chi Square analysis. On analyses, the researcher has learnt that the oil price volatility plays an important role in a nations economic growth and we strongly reject the null hypothesis in all the three cases where the null hypothesis says “Oil price does not impact the economic growth of a nation” not only this, the researcher has also learnt that due to depletion of oil, the price will continue to rise in the next few years. This study will provide clear picture of how the oil price impacts an economic health of a nation and will further contribute to future research on similar topics. The primary objective of the overall study is to provide a clear understanding of the effects of oil price volatility on the Gross Domestic Product of U.S., China and India.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTIII

DECLARATIONIV

ABSTRACTV

LIST OF FIGURESVIII

LIST OF TABLESIX

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION1

Background of the Study1

Research Aims and Objectives6

Aims6

Objectives6

Research ...