Terrorism

Terrorism

Introduction

The main purpose of this paper is to make an analysis on the different aspects of terrorism. The paper makes discussion that is t easy to predict terrorism, and what are the limitations for the prediction of terrorism. The paper also discusses the single most significant trend in contemporary terrorist operations, and the greatest opportunities and most critical limitations of predictive analysis within the context of terrorism and counter-terrorism intelligence.

1. Can terrorism be predicted? (If so, how/ to what extent? If not, why not/what are the limitations?)

Act of terrorism cannot be predicted at any place whatever the strength of the security services and provide states, and no intelligence agency to stop or prevent terrorism and eliminate it. For example, what happened on September 11, the United States of America, how could 20 people from al-Qaeda attack 4 forts represent the states of military, economic and political entity of the strongest in the world, therefore, whatever the technological superiority and the ability to own guns, it is difficult to confront terrorism. Wars of order are much easier than the war on terrorism, because the armies know localized theater of operations, and learn the power of each and owned by each of the arms and spin the war to one of the superior forces on the other, but the terror group of individuals is difficult to confront irregular (Anheier, 2004).

While the total prevention of terrorist acts is nearly impossible, the elimination of the causes that terrorists exploit may be the most important factor in preventing terrorism. Often, the causes of public disorder come from political corruption, social discrimination, economic deprivation, ideological differences, religious differences and foreign influences. All these reasons help in the development of violence and terrorist activities. The elimination of these problems may require government intervention. Thus, the government takes away the terrorists cause (Sheleff, 1999). The terrorist is not perceived as the crosser, the liberator and defender of the interests of the poor. With the absence of terrorist mystique, people can recognize terrorism for what it truly is-a common criminal. Many of terrorist activities can be prevented by eliminating some of the causes of discontent and situations that end in violence. At the international level, diplomatic efforts and international cooperation are important factors in prevention. If there is a terrorist incident, you have to react as an action. A strong reaction can cause too much damage to the government as no reaction. One goal of terrorists is to cause incidents where government officials have forced to use excessive force. Thus, terrorists can use this as propaganda against the government. An effective counter-terrorism depends on the timely identification of problems which can develop into violence and confrontations. Indicators produced from analyzes of past terrorist incidents, are valuable tools in analyzing the threat and the intelligence estimate (Peerenboom, 2004). In many cases, these indicators can avarice as the normal exercise of democratic rights. Also, note that many terrorists are well trained in subversion of the democratic process and use the system to ...