Support systems and natural disasters

Introduction

In recent years, the world has witnessed both massive destruction caused by natural disasters and immense financial and physical support materializing for the victims of these calamities. Climate change may reasonably be expected to increase countries' vulnerability to natural hazards in the future. For these natural hazards do not become man-made disasters, effective systems are required to identify needs, manage data and help calibrate responses. These systems, if well designed, can help coordinate the arrival of aid to ensure timely and efficient delivery of assistance to those who need help most (Nah, 33).

The emphasis on aid effectiveness is particularly important in the context of disaster response, because, as is clear, vulnerability to natural disasters and inefficiencies in the distribution of aid may result in unnecessary economic losses, increased suffering and increasing poverty. For those who are committed to saving lives, fighting poverty and stimulating development, early preparation for effective disaster management is essential.

Natural-Disaster Mathematical Aid Systems

Researchers have also submitted a site on the pattern of distribution of humanitarian aid. Both could have been applied in the case of the recent earthquake in Haiti.

The program begins by providing information on the types of disasters (earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis, fires, etc.), measurable units (Richter scale for earthquakes, wind speed for hurricanes, etc) and measure the vulnerability of area. To obtain a measure of vulnerability, which is the most difficult to do, the scientists used Human Development Index provided by the United Nations by country, and modify it according to the situation of the affected region 9 Perera, 196).

With these data, the computer application calculates the magnitude of the consequences of the disaster "in terms of dead, wounded, homeless, and other costs involved, which is very useful information for NGOs. These variables have been selected from the database of the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the University of Louvain (Belgium), which is a WHO Collaborating Centre.

To manage the highly imprecise and uncertain nature of the data collected in these cases, researchers are working with fuzzy logic, a mathematical tool that operates with numeric ranges (no exact s) to try to quantify the "more or less" magnitudes as the number of people injured or affected.

Tinguaro Juan Rodriguez, a member of the UCM team, said: "The system helps the proposed decision would have been perfectly applied after the recent earthquake in Haiti, as it focuses on assessing the impact of this disaster, where primary information is scarce, unreliable and generally poor quality.”

The most effective distribution of aid

Another application developed by mathematicians and just published in the Journal of multicriteria decision analysis is a distribution of humanitarian aid (HADS).

The tool is based on the use of a logistic map of the territory, with nodes (points) and connections (streets and roads). The "plot" includes the demand for assistance in some nodes (people affected), the supply in others (airports, ports and warehouses), availability and vehicle characteristics (type, capacity, speed and cost) as well as data connections (distances, road conditions, ...