STOCK MARKET

With evidence from your own investing experience in the stock market simulation assess the impact of news information on share prices

With evidence from your own investing experience in the stock market simulation assess the impact of news information on share prices

This paper identifies the firm-specific information events that drive economically relevant stock price and trading volume changes. It employs a novel methodology that is not constrained by an arbitrarily determined set of information events and allows for event anticipation and information leakage prior to public disclosure.

We find that no less than 65% of significant price changes and trading volume movements in our sample can be readily explained by public domain information. In addition, we find that a parsimonious set of news categories represent the key drivers.

Sell-side analyst stock recommendations and earnings forecast revisions as a class, unaccompanied by other newsreleases, dominate all other news categories in terms of significant market reaction. They explain 17.4% of major market-adjusted price changes and 16.1% of significant trading volume activity triggered by reported corporate news events. In particular, this compares with 17.0% (15.2%) of economically significant price changes (trading volume movements) driven by firms' formal accounting releases.

However, taking into account the relative magnitude of market response to different news releases, firms' formal accounting disclosures dominate within this domain. As such, we conclude these are not fully anticipated by apparently more timely market disclosures, and that the existence of news services and the activities of the sell-side analyst are not substitutes for a firm's interim and preliminary results.

There is a saying: stock markets have predicted 10 out of the last 3 recessions.

With plummeting share prices making headline news, it is worth considering the impact of the Stock market on the economy. How much should we worry when share prices fall? How does it impact on the average consumer? and how does it affect the economy?

Economic Effects of Stock Market

1. Wealth Effect

The first impact is that people with shares will see a fall in their wealth. If the fall is significant it will affect their financial outlook. If they are losing money on shares they will be more hesitant to spend money; this can contribute to a fall in consumer spending. However, the effect should not be given too much importance. Often people who buy shares are prepared to lose money; their spending patterns are usually independent of share prices, especially for short term losses.

2. Effect on Pensions

Anybody with a private pension or investment trust will be affected by the stock market, at least indirectly. Pension funds invest a significant part of their funds on the stock market. Therefore, if there is a serious fall in share prices, it reduces the value of pension funds. This means that future pension payouts will be lower. If share prices fall too much, pension funds can struggle to meet their promises. The important thing is the long term movements in the share prices. If share prices fall for a long time then it will definitely affect pension funds ...