SOUTH OSSETIA CONFLICT

South Ossetia Conflict

South Ossetia Conflict

Literature Review

Despite attempts by Georgia to portray the current conflict as Russian aggression, its origins should be traced back to Tbilisi. While both sides share responsibility for the small-scale violence that preceded the full outbreak of hostilities, it was Georgia rather than Russia that escalated the violence. The Georgian military assault on South Ossetia was deliberately timed to coincide with the Olympic Games. Indeed, Georgia's military strategy seems to have relied upon a delayed Russian military response, due to Putin's absence from Moscow, and likely predicated on the belief that President Medvedev would not take any action without Putin being present.

Georgian President Saakashvili was most likely counting on his military forces to deliver a knockout blow to the separatist forces, thereby allowing a relatively quick seizure of South Ossetia. For the last several years, the Georgian military has increasingly become beholden to an offensive military doctrine, and has developed capabilities intended to retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia. However, it is important to note that this offensive doctrine was not premised on an immediate and large-scale Russian military response, although common sense should have dictated otherwise. By contrast, Georgia would have been well-served to rely on a defensive military doctrine, and use non-military means to reintegrate the separatist regions.

Problems with Georgian Military Assault on South Ossetia

The Georgian military assault likely consisted of two infantry brigades with tank, heavy artillery, helicopter and air support. The build-up of these forces was almost certainly observed by the Russians, thereby denying Georgia strategic surprise. Moreover, this large build-up was not consistent with Georgian claims that Tbilisi only intended to suppress South Ossetian mortar fire on Georgia. Likewise, the full-scale military assault on Tshkinvali could not be interpreted as anything other than an attempt to retake the region.

The most curious feature of the Georgian assault is that there appears to have been no attempt to secure the southern end of the Roki Tunnel, thereby severely impeding Russia's ability to bring forward heavy ground units. Indeed, the Georgians seem to have demonstrated very little strategic or operational finesse; a further indication their doctrine and military plans were inadequate. Judging by the direction and pace of the Georgian offensive, there appears to have been a complete disregard for the possibility of Russian intervention. The Georgian political and military leadership most likely deceived themselves into believing Russia would not intervene. Given that any Georgia-Russia military confrontation would be suicidal, the Georgian leadership probably insisted that its operational planning be limited to portraying an invasion of South Ossetia as merely a conflict between Georgia and South Ossetian forces.

Georgia's indiscriminate use of heavy weapons (air and artillery) against Tshkinvali was extremely clumsy and wholly counter-productive. There appears to have been little military rationale for this action, as it was not aimed at South Ossetian defensive positions. Not only did this bombardment have the effect of strengthening South Ossetian resistance, but it also gave the Kremlin an excuse to intervene militarily, knowing the Russian ...