SHIPPING MARKET STATISTICAL DATA ANALYSIS

Shipping Market Statistical Data Analysis



Shipping Market Statistical Data Analysis

Introduction

During discussions on the development of the International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships the need has occasionally arisen for data and statistics relating to different aspects of the ship recycling activity. Over time, the author has collected statistics on the size of the fleet to which the new Convention will apply when it enters into force; on the expected annual demand for recycling Convention ships; on the related statistic of the average age of recycled ships; on whether the average age changes significantly over time; and on statistics on recycled volumes in the major ship recycling markets.

While attempting to answer questions such as the above, more complex questions tend to arise, such as for example questions on the dynamics of supply and demand for ship scrap; on the price differentials of ship scrap in the major ship recycling States; and on the likely interaction between the new Convention and the dominant market forces. The author has not attempted to address in any conclusive manner these complex questions, nor has he addressed the policy issues which were discussed at the recently held fiftysixth session of IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee. The paper presents some relevant data and statistics which hopefully will help the interested reader to form some clearer views on the subject. Also, the paper has identified and is discussing some of the difficulties and sources of inaccuracies associated with published statistical information on ship recycling.

The size of the operating fleet

One of the key statistics which is often required is the size of the operating fleet that will be subject to the requirements of the Convention when this enters into force. The world fleet of course changes continuously with newbuildings being added, with old ships being sent for recycling and with casualties being removed from the fleet. A most authoritative source of world fleet data is Lloyd's Register - Fairplay and in particular reference must be made to its annual publication World Fleet Statistics which reflects the state of the fleet at the end of December of each year for ships of over 100 gross tons.

Table 1 below presents relevant data obtained from table 20 of the World Fleet Statistics editions for years 2005 and 2006. Data for the whole fleet (i.e. ships over 100 GT) and also for the fleet over 500 GT (i.e. the fleet which will be subject to the Convention's requirements) are presented. The substantial growth of the world fleet in the last year is worth noting (7% growth in terms of gross tonnage and 4% growth in terms of ship numbers for the fleet over 500 GT). Whereas it is tempting to quote from table 1 the data at the end of 2006 (49,213 ships) as the fleet which in future will be subject to the requirements of the Convention, in fact some care is needed with this statistic. The draft Convention excludes government owned ships on ...