Research Proposal

Research Proposal

Research Proposal

Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that climate has changed over the past century, that human activities have had an influence on these changes, and that climate is expected to continue to change in the future. Depending on the emission scenarios assumed, continued increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to induce an additional 1-3.5°C increase in average global surface temperatures by the year 2100 (Liverman 2002). These temperature increases are expected to modify global hydrologic budgets leading to increased winter precipitation at high latitudes, more extreme temperature days, and more or less droughts or floods depending on location ( Rind and Kattenberg). These predicted changes in climate have raised concerns about potential impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity, biogeochemical cycling, and the availability of water resources.

The response of forests to decreased water availability from postulated increases in future drought conditions is considered a key issue in climate change scenarios (Wigley et al., 1984), and concerns regarding vegetation impacts have been amplified because rates of change are expected to occur much faster than past successional processes and species dispersal rates ( Overpeck and Pastor). The actual directions and magnitude of expected changes in precipitation are highly uncertain and specific scenarios for regional climate change are only preliminary. Notwithstanding this uncertainty, Gregory et al. (1997) concluded that future climate predictions point to an increase in the severity of drought conditions.

Statement of the Problem or Research Question

All economic sectors depend on a steady water supply to keep their industries and employees functioning. Drought can impact service industries, retail sales, and general trade, all of which affect the regional economy. However, some sectors in the Southwest are more susceptible than others to the impacts of drought, especially rain-fed agriculture and outdoor tourism and recreation (Sheppard 2002).

Agriculture in the Southwest already competes with other sectors for water and land, regardless of regional drought. In Arizona, agriculture currently uses about 80 percent of the state's water. Limited supplies due to drought conditions will exacerbate water conflicts between urban populations, commerce and industry, energy producers, and natural environments. Water may shift from agricultural use to urban use as the demand for water in the Southwest continues to grow.

The agricultural sector in the Southwest is dependent upon a regular water supply, and will suffer economically from intensified drought and climate change. Drought not only implies direct effects on crops or livestock, but also a myriad of indirect effects. For farmers, drought might mean increased water costs, a reduction in crop yields or crop quality, increased threat of pests, weeds, or diseases signifying higher management costs for pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers (Seager 2007). For ranchers, drought may lead to animal mortality or disease, increased threat of predation, cattle sell offs, a reduction in livestock forage, and higher costs for supplemental feed or water. Retailers who provide services and goods to farmers and ranchers could also face reduced business, creating a ripple effect towards a weak ...