MODELING POPULATION IN FRANCE

Modeling Population in France



Table of Contents

1. Introduction3

2.The future of french population. Un Projections and national projections5

2.1 Fertility, mortality and migration assumptions.5

2.2 The population indicators6

3. The Impact Of Demographics Changes On The Labor Market And The Social Security System7

3.1 Demographic projections and the labor market7

3.2 Demographic projections and the social security system9

3.3 Fertility beLow replacement and declining population.10

4. Replacement Migration11

4.1 Replacement migration and population dynamics12

4.2 Migration policies and social dynamics12

5. Conclusion14

References16

Appendix18

Modeling Population in France

1. Introduction

In most deVeloped countries, the decline in fertility and the increase in longevity has raised three concerns for the future: the decrease in the supply of labor, the socioeconomic implications of population aging, and the long term prospect of population decline and demise.

The population debate has a particular relevance in the case of France, where the early decline in fertility has prompted a deep and on going concern, which goes back to the last decades of the 19th century, and led to the implementation of population policies, favoring immigration and natality. The debate regained strength from the late sixties on, when fertility started to decline as in most western European countries, though, the current and projected fertility levels remains above the average level of the other member states of the European Union. (Theisen, 1973 59-77)

First, considering the demographic parameters involved, to preclude the demise of population and to insure a stationary population is an unquestionable end for any society, and in that respect fertility is an inescapable means for that given target. Immigration, except for settlement countries is not an end per se, it might be a means in order to respond to the needs of the labor market to get a more balanced age structure or to slow down the decrease of the population. The age structure itself is a constraint, which can be altered through policy, only to a limited extent. (Powell et al., 1995 199-222)

Secondly, there is an interrelation between the type of issues involved, their timing, the appropriate policies measures and their efficiency. For that purpose it is appropriate to envisage, as a working device, three time horizons and the specific reference systems, that is the set of variables to be considered relevant for a given issue at given point in time in the future.

On the Medium run, the next ten years or so, the labor market is the main focus of concern. The reference system comprises here the set of supply and demand variables that determine the employment equilibrium. The impact of fertility and mortality changes is for that purpose at this time horizon very limited. Conversely, international migration could play a decisive role, as well as other socioeconomic variables. (Perez Camacho et al., 1991 263-278)

For the long run, - from 2020 to the population projections horizon 2040-2050- structural imbalances of the age distributions are things to worry about. Now the equilibrium of the social security system depends not only on demographic trends and structure but on a number of variables, social, economic and institutional that might as ...