MIDTERM ELECTIONS

What is the significance of the midterm elections?

What is the significance of the midterm elections?

Introduction

Midterm Elections in the United States generally refer to a class of elections that fall in the middle of the presidential term, two years after the president is elected. The term itself implies a connection with the presidency; in the basic language of political science, the outcomes of midterm elections are assumed to be straw votes or indicators of the health of the president's popularity, the political health of the president's party, or the strength of the opposition party versus that of the presidents (Matthew, 2004).

Midterm elections are held in even-numbered years on the Tuesday following the first Monday of November. Presidential candidacies never coincide with midterm elections.

Voter Surge and Decline

Scholars have also argued that midterm loss is the result of voter surge and decline. This theory argues that presidential elections tend to attract a more diversified set of voters. In particular, independent and leaning partisan voters will be much more likely to turn out in presidential election years than in years in which a president does not appear on the ballot.



The Economy and Other Factors

Besides the theories of presidential coattails and voter surge and decline, other scholars have posited that midterm loss by the president's party is a function of the environment at the time of the election. Here, losses are more contained if the economy is doing well and the overall popularity of the president and the administration is high. In the latter case, midterm elections are seen as an opportunity for the voters to signal their level of approval or disapproval of the president's handling of public policy and foreign entanglements (Lawrence, 2007). If these individuals feel satisfied with the direction of the country under the president, they will be more ...