The two interpretations have different implications, however, for the post contractual profits and stock prices of U.K Real estate customers at the turn of the last century the railroads. Edinburgh used ordinary least squares, the capital asset pricing model, and railroad stock prices to see with which interpretation returns on railroad stocks over the period the lease was in effect were consistent. Because these returns were abnormally high, Edinburgh concluded that the primary effect of the lease was the promotion of economic efficiency, not market power.
Anticipated % of sales
Financial Inputs, EURm, 31 Dec
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
Sales
39,823
44,262
47,582
50,437
51,950
53,508
55,113
growth
11.1 %
7.5 %
6.0 %
3.0 %
3.0 %
3.0 %
EBITDA
6,039
7,332
8,327
9,079
9,351
9,631
9,920
margin
15.2 %
16.6 %
17.5 %
18.0 %
18.0 %
18.0 %
18.0 %
EBIT / Operating Profit
5,020
6,339
7,185
7,868
8,104
8,347
8,598
margin
12.6 %
14.3 %
15.1 %
15.6 %
15.6 %
15.6 %
15.6 %
Depreciation & Amortisation
1,019
993
1,142
1,210
1,247
1,284
1,323
% of sales
2.6 %
2.2 %
2.4 %
2.4 %
2.4 %
2.4 %
2.4 %
Capital expenditure
(1,258)
(1,701)
(1,903)
(2,017)
(2,078)
(2,140)
(2,205)
% of sales
- 3.2 %
- 3.8 %
- 4.0 %
- 4.0 %
- 4.0 %
- 4.0 %
- 4.0 %
Working Capital
Current assets
- Inventories
3,578
4,309
- Trade and other receivables
3,429
4,135
- Current Tax Assets
173
298
- Non- current assets held for sale
17
876
Current liabilities
- Trade payable and other liabilities
(8,413)
(10,226)
- Provisions
(420)
(408)
- Current tax liabilities
(487)
(639)
- Others
0
(57)
Net Working Capital
(2,123)
(1,712)
Change in Working Capital
411
476
504
519
535
551
% sales
0.9 %
1.0 %
1.0 %
1.0 %
1.0 %
1.0 %
Net present value
If I paid £40m for a business that was expected to generate the cash flow stream below, and my cost of capital
was 14 %, what would I expect the NPV of the investment to be?
Cost of funds
14 %
Year
0
1
2
3
Future value
- 40
20
26
34
Discount factor
1.00
0.88
0.77
0.67
Present value
- 40.00
17.54
20.01
22.95
Answer: net present value =
20.50
Check: present value of cash flows
60.50
Formula for NPV
Price paid
- 40.00
Price paid
Answer: net present value of investment =
20.50
NPV
IRR
What would my IRR on the investment be (= discount rate where NPV = zero)?
Answer: IRR (= discount rate) =
40 %
Iterate and change cost of funds until NPV = zero
Year
0
1
2
3
Future value
- 40
20
26
34
Discount factor = 1/(1+interest rate)^year
1.00
0.71
0.51
0.37
Present value
- 40.00
14.30
13.29
12.42
Net present value =
0.00
Note, Excel formula check:
40 %
Formula for IRR
Question 02
The aim of this section is to show how geographical representation of existing data can help to interpret trends in wine consumption. The maps simply portray the distribution of existing data. However, other areas of epidemiology have shown the dangers in interpreting what seem to be straightforward data. There are issues to do with level of aggregation and reference populations for rate calculation. These issues are explored in data sets. The data set from London, England show new cases of wine consumption.
There are several types of geographical study:-
•descriptive - to describe the geographical distribution of disease
•ecological (or “geographical correlation”) - to describe the geographical distribution and relationship of disease with exposure
•cluster/ investigative - to study clusters or clustering (disease excess with or without an identifiable source); and to investigate potential point sources (e.g industrial pollution and chemical accidents)
•?migrant (or “environmental genetics”) - to study changes in disease patterns among people that move from high or low risk to another region with low or high risk respectively.
Problems with the data in terms both of the population counts (denominator) and accuracy ...