DECISION MODELLING

Clark Property Management



Clark Property Management

TASK 1 & 2

 

TASK 1

TASK 2

 

Simulated A/C failures for 3 years (S)

Expected failures using probability assigned (E)

E - F

Month 1

5

6

1

Month 2

0

0

0

Month 3

6

3

-3

Month 4

4

0

-4

Month 5

2

3

1

Month 6

1

2

1

Month 7

3

0

-3

Month 8

6

4

-2

Month 9

2

6

4

Month 10

6

3

-3

Month 11

0

2

2

Month 12

3

6

3

Month 13

3

1

-2

Month 14

1

4

3

Month 15

3

6

3

Month 16

0

2

2

Month 17

0

2

2

Month 18

5

6

1

Month 19

3

1

-2

Month 20

2

1

-1

Month 21

1

2

1

Month 22

3

6

3

Month 23

0

3

3

Month 24

0

5

5

Month 25

5

1

-4

Month 26

5

5

0

Month 27

4

6

2

Month 28

2

6

4

Month 29

5

4

-1

Month 30

0

6

6

Month 31

4

4

0

Month 32

2

6

4

Month 33

5

3

-2

Month 34

2

2

0

Month 35

1

2

1

Month 36

1

4

3

Average

3

3

1

Explanation

The simulated average number of number of A/C failures per month and the expected number of A/C failures are similar i.e. 3 A/C failures per month. Similarly the difference is also not significantly i.e. a difference of 1 A/C failure ...