Cause and Effect of Divorce

Introduction

The most prevalent account of why marriages change is rooted in social learning, or behavioral models, which focus on how positive and negative behavior shapes how spouses come to feel about one another (Bradbury et al., 1998; Fincham & Beach, 1999; Karney & Bradbury, 1995). Although scholars sometimes discuss the role of positive behaviors, numerous studies in this tradition have found that the levels of negative behaviors are correlated with satisfaction more strongly than are the levels of positive behaviors (Gottman, 1994; Huston & Vangelisti, 1991; Kurdek, 1995; Wills, Weiss, & Patterson, 1974). Consequently, research taking a behavioral perspective has tended to focus on negative behaviors, usually as they occur within the context of relational conflict (Bradbury et al., 1998).

This view of marital relationships implies a model of change that has been summarized most explicitly as the erosion model (Clements, Cordova, Markman, & Laurenceau, 1997; Clements, Stanley, & Markman, 2004; Markman, 1979). This model presumes that marriages begin with “high degrees of positive factors, such as attraction, love, commitment, trust, friendship, and intimacy” (Clements et al., 1997, p. 342). This affection, however, is not seen as predictive of ultimate relational outcomes; as Notarius and his colleagues (1997) argued, “it is not how loving the partners are to each other in good times that make or breaks a marriage; it is how the partners deal with conflict” (p. 219). The emergent distress model suggests that antagonistic behaviors - particularly during conflict - erode the positive aspects of marriage over time (Clements et al., 2004).

Discussion

In many ways, research based on the emergent distress model has been successful. Scholars have identified antagonistic behaviors in couples that foretell diminished satisfaction and divorce at rates statistically greater than chance (e.g., Clements et al., 2004; Gottman, 1994). Also, divorce prevention programs based on the emergent distress model, such as the Prevention and Relationship Enhancement Program, provide benefits such as reducing antagonistic conflict behaviors and diminishing the divorce rate (Hahlweg, Markman, Thurmaier, Engl, & Eckert, 1998; Kline et al., this volume; Markman, Renick, Floyd, Stanley, & Clements, 1993).

There is also evidence that the emergent distress model is far from complete, however. Although the antagonistic behaviors highlighted by the emergent distress model are associated with declining satisfaction, they account for only a relatively small percentage of variation in marital satisfaction (Bradbury, Rogge, & Lawrence, 2001). This is partly because few studies have simultaneously taken into account both of the two broad affective dimensions of the emotional climate of marriage. Unless high levels of antagonism are accompanied by low levels of affection, marital satisfaction does not decline much, if at all (Huston & Chorost, 1994).

Moreover, studies that have used antagonistic behaviors to classify couples as divorced or still married often have implied that this would allow the scholars to predict divorce in other couples at very high rates, often exceeding 90% (e.g., Gottman, 1994; Gottman et al., 1998). However, correct classification rates (whatever data they may be based on) in a particular sample do not indicate ...