ASSIGNMENT

Assignment



Assignment

Part 1:

Forecasting Task Using Excel

In the first part of this assignment three different methods of forecasting is describe. First we define the nature of data set which is used for forecasting, and then brief descriptions of three of the forecasting methods are presented.

Referenced Theory

There is a basic version of the referential theory. The theories of reference can be divided into two groups:

direct reference theories (or causal theories of reference, most outstanding representatives are Kripke and Putnam) and

descriptive theories of reference (its most outstanding representatives are Frege, the Wittgenstein the Tractatus and Russell).

In the theories of direct reference defends the possibility of reference as a relation between the sign and the object, which is pro mediated any descriptive content. The speaker's knowledge is not sufficient, nor necessary to explain the reference. The linguistic expression denoting the object gets extra-linguistic reality directly. This direct relationship between language and the world is made possible by the causal connections between the speakers themselves and with the natural world.

1. An examination of the data and description of the nature of the dataset with which you have been supplied

The nature of the data to be subjected to a series of significant changes over time, and it is important for the analyst to fully understand these changes. An excellent example of such changes provides market data of crude oil. Data on crude oil prices are known from the time of drilling the first oil well in 1859 in Titusville, Pennsylvania. During the XIX century, crude oil is processed predominantly in paraffin for subsequent use in lighting lamps, and by-product of kerosene was lubricants. After the invention of the internal combustion engine main product of crude oil was gasoline (Fuller 1975 117). As a result, the behaviour of the price of crude oil before and after 1900 was very different. Before the XX century and widely used vehicles crude oil primarily for lighting. Therefore, prices are behaving more as the price of household goods, and not as energy prices. Thus, although the data series begin in 1859, hidden behind the role of oil in the economy has changed along with the centenary, and changes the cycle.

Although such large-scale changes the nature of the data appear only in the case of very long-term cycles, it should be emphasized that the structural changes in the nature of the data are not directly linked with long time intervals (Glasser 1964 834). For example, the cycles of prices for soybeans have changed considerably over the past 20 years due to climatic and political changes. In the 1970s, of El-Ninosa led to massive fish kills, causing a sharp reduction in supply of anchovies and sharply push up demand for soybeans as a substitute for protein. Once established, such a shift was permanent.

Another crucial change that began at about the same time has become a trend to an increase in soybean production in South America, primarily due to grain embargo against the Soviets imposed by President ...