TURKEY AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Turkey and the European Union

Table of Contents

CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION3

Background and Academic Context3

The Historical Perspective4

Macro economy of Turkey5

Europe: prove or disruption of the “Clash of Civilizations”?7

Realism - Rationalist approach to the decision making8

Research Scope and Objectives9

Limitations of the Study10

CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW11

Turkey-EU relations: an overview11

A sketch of EU's Civilisational Project13

Turkey stuck between Europe and Asia: 'wait and see' model?16

Conclusion17

CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY21

Method21

Research Portfolio21

Secondary Research22

Interviews23

Research Questions25

Research Limitations25

CHAPTER IV: DISCUSSION26

Turkey at the doorstep of the EU: in or out?27

Future scenerios30

Scenerio I: 'yes' to Turkey30

Scenerio II: a conditional 'yes' to Turkey30

The concern over oil31

The transatlantic competition for markets31

Scenerio 3: 'no' to Turkey31

Post-2004 enlargement challenges32

'European' versus 'Turkish' identity33

The Cyprus Imbroglio35

The EU's dilemma of deepening versus widening37

CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION39

REFERENCES43

NOTES48

APPENDIX52

CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION

Background and Academic Context

For the last forty years Turkey was on the course of integration into Europe, only during the last three years the negotiations moved from the stand point. Since 2005 the European Union has outlined the main criteria for the possible membership, these included: absolute Human Rights record, change of Constitution, less frequent involvement of the military forces into governmental and social affairs, freedom of voice and respect of minorities.(Aydin,2007) A separate criterion was the recognition of Cyprus as an independent member of the European Union and establishment of full political and economic affairs.(Capan,2007) Nevertheless, Turkey has achieved enormous progress in the way of democratic, economic, environmental and cultural aspects during the last five years.

In order to evaluate Turkey's brought in benefits as a candidate, full scope of possible advantages it is necessary to evaluate all characteristics of the country, its strong and weak points and if it will be possible to eliminate downturns by the 2015 the predicted year for the finalization of the integration into the EU.

At the same time, there is hardly a keen reaction from the EU member states on the accession negotiations, states are concerned with the mass of population that may gain access to the free movement legislation and capital involved in the process of integration (Narbourne,2007).

As a conclusion, recommendations will be given for Turkey as a prospective member in possible ways of improving the chances for the positive decision from the EU and proposals for the EU as a whole to try and evaluate whether the Union is too sceptical and strict in relation to Turkey and whether it is possible to change the overall social attitude concerning the negative influence of the first possible Muslim state on the “European Identity”.

Furthermore, the dissertation will incorporate the international relations theory in the realist perspective in trying to evaluate the member states positions on the Turkey's accession and views of other involved parties such as Russia and Arab states on which the accession of Turkey will have a direct influence.(Muftuler,2008) For the basis of theoretical argument, the approach of costs and benefits will be taken as a framework and analysis will be carried out in order to try and establish if the benefits for the European Union will outweigh the costs and ...