The Survival Rates of A.I.D.S. Patients Over Last Two Years

The demographics of HIV patients are shifting, with the average age of those infected with HIV ever-increasing due to longer life expectancy and higher survival rates. In fact survival rates have risen to as high as 91% in some markets. However according to a recent report by independent market analyst Datamonitor* (DTM.L), with increasingly complex infections and drug resistance developing in long term patients, novel medications and new combinations are being launched to continue the assault in a market that is providing challenges for pharmaceutical companies. Historically, the HIV market has experienced relatively strong growth, recording a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6% between 2005 and 2008. However a number of challenges, such as the first antiretroviral patent expiries, increased competition and a raft of novel products reaching the market, are expected to lead to a more modest CAGR of 6% to 2014. Despite this, Datamonitor believes the changing epidemiology of HIV, increased resistance development and a rise in incidence in several of the major markets offers companies involved in the therapeutic area significant sales opportunities. See Commercial Insight: HIV - From the Naïve to the Complex. Increased life expectancy, increased complexity The demographics of the HIV infected population is rapidly changing, with Datamonitor's research finding that the average age of HIV patients is increasing, Datamonitor infectious disease analyst Laura Harris says. "Although there are a larger percentage of older patients acquiring the disease, which partially accounts for this changing demographic, Datamonitor believes that the key reason is the longer life expectancy for HIV/AIDS patients. The advent of HAART has led to a substantial decrease in the mortality rate from AIDS, estimated to have fallen by 70% between 1995 and 2001(1) with survival rates now believed to be as high as 91%."(2) (Hoover DR, 245-252)

However with longer life expectancy comes increasingly complex infections, with resistance development common in patients undergoing long-term antiretroviral therapy. Traditionally patients who developed resistance after second-line therapy were limited in their choices for subsequent therapy, Harris says. "Currently, the development of newer drugs such as Fuzeon, with activity against resistant strains of HIV, has increased the options for later stage patients." Many of the antiretrovirals currently in development, such as tipranavir and capravirine, have potent activity against HIV-resistance and are likely to facilitate third, fourth and even greater lines of therapy for the most treatment-experienced patients. Datamonitor ...