THE 2010 MID TERM ELECTION

The 2010 Mid Term election

The 2010 Mid Term election

Introduction

The 111th Congress will return for a “lame duck” session in mid-November to consider key legislation, including an extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, completion of the FY 2011 appropriations process, and possible ratification of the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). Even in the lame duck, Democrats will have difficulty passing legislation, as Republican Senate winner Mark Kirk (R-IL) will be seated immediately1, reducing the Democratic majority to 58. (Rasmussen 2010)Widespread Republican gains had been forecast by political handicappers for months amid rising public anger over the economy, jobs, and the deficit. Voters directed their anger towards the party in power and in the process dealt a blow to the agenda of President Obama.

What Does it Mean?

With a Republican-controlled House and a narrow Democratic majority in the Senate, much of the 112th Congress will likely be consumed by partisan gridlock. Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH), who is in line to become Speaker of the House when the new Congress is sworn-in this January, has proposed reducing federal non-defense domestic discretionary spending to fiscal year (FY) 2008 levels, and many conservative candidates advocate for even further reductions. The rest of the House agenda is likely to be driven by the concerns of the business and finance communities, including a push to “repeal and replace” parts of the healthcare reform bill, decrease regulations, and increase oversight of the Administration through a series of hearings and investigations. (Zernike 2010)

As anticipated, Republicans took back the majority in the House of Representatives and made considerable gains in the Senate on November 2. Although a number of races are still too close to call, Republicans will pick up between 64 and 66 seats in the House, at least 25 more than the 39 they needed to reclaim control of the chamber for the first time since 2006. Republicans won approximately 10 more seats than the 55 expected by most political forecasters, even defeating several powerful Democratic members such as Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton (D-MO), Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt (D-SC), and Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman James Oberstar (D-MN). In the Senate, Republicans did not win the ten seats needed for a majority, but significantly cut into the Democratic advantage in the upper chamber, claiming at least six Democratic seats. (Taibbe 2010)

Despite retaining a slim majority, Senate Democrats will be hard-pressed to garner the 60 votes necessary to overcome a filibuster of any legislation. Having experienced the difficulty of this task with a caucus of 59, expect Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), who himself narrowly survived a tight reelection contest, to be more selective about bringing legislation to the floor. While the research and education communities are not dependent on the passage of new legislation -- with the exception of appropriations -- the function of the federal government depends on some cooperation to move new initiatives forward and pass routine bills.

With this in mind, it is likely that the ...