MANAGEMENT

Business Risk Assessment

Business Risk Assessment

Introduction

Methods of expert assessments of risk - are the methods of forecasting and risk analysis, which are based on expert opinions. The most common methods of expert risk assessments include the Delphi method, ranking, paired comparison, the method scores and more.

Methods portfolio - is the common name of the methods of analysis and investment management, allowing on the basis of economic-mathematical, statistical and other methods to develop a risk-based:

- The principles of financial market pa (direction of investments by segment, industry and / or markets);

- Terms of changing the structure of the innovation portfolio (buy or sell specific securities, etc.).

Methods portfolio designed for professional financial analysts

These and other methods of analysis allow us to estimate risks. Risk assessment - this is one of the stages of risk analysis, which is in qualitative or quantitative assessment of possible losses (damages, losses) and the possibility of their occurrence. It is performed primarily by expert methods under uncertainty and is used when comparing a limited number of alternative decisions (Holmes, 2002).

Quantitative risk assessment

The risk assessment is justified application of the apparatus of mathematical statistics and probability theory. For a generalized risk assessment, the following rules:

a) Risk of absorption rule: if the risks are assigned to one area of ??activity, but a manifestation of the negative factors are independent of each other, the probability of their appearance is estimated by the maximum value;

b) the mathematical rule of addition of risk: if the risks apply to different areas of activity, but a manifestation of the negative factors are independent of each other, the probability of their appearance is evaluated according to the rules of probability theory for the sum of the probabilities of independent events;

c) a rule of logical addition of risk: if the risks are different areas of activity, and negative factors are shown as a function of one another, the probability of their appearance is evaluated based on the rules of logical addition - the degree of risk in this case is calculated as the sum of the risk of one event on the chances of other

Today risk management is a carefully planned process. The tasks of risk management are organically woven into the overall problem of increasing the efficiency of the enterprise. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence is replaced by active management techniques.

Risk management is a system of risk management and economic, rather, financial relations arising in the process of governance. Risk management system can be described as a combination of methods, techniques and activities that allow a certain extent, predict the onset of risk events and to take measures to eliminate or reduce the adverse effects of such events (Salkind & Rasmussen, 2007). It is obvious that zero risk does not exist, and usually take risks, without But the problem arises when the risk is really too high. Unlike the qualitative analysis or semi-quantitative, the numerical value obtained by an ACR (quantitative risk ...