ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN

Israeli-Palestinian

Israeli-Palestinian

International Intervention Conflict

As is often the case, far more parties are calling for intervention than volunteering for it. Egypt is a likely candidate, given its longstanding ties to Gaza and on-going mediation efforts; but Egyptian leaders are extremely wary of having their security forces step into a volatile situation. "Nonsense," is how the Egyptian mediator for Gaza described talk of an international force (Arendt, 2006). An Arab League force—perhaps drawn from the Arab Quartet (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan and Egypt)—is another option, though there is almost as little precedent as there is political will. (The same could be said for the larger Muslim world, given comments by the head of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, who dismissed proposals for a force.)

The EU has several years of experience in Gaza with security mediators, aid delivery, and border monitoring. But these efforts have been extremely small-scale, and with limited results. Given the burdens of the enlarged international force in Lebanon, and ongoing commitments in Afghanistan, the Balkans, and Africa, political support in Europe for a Gaza intervention will likely be trumped by a lack of capacity (Beyerle, 2006). Non-neighboring and non-European countries could contribute to a UN-authorized force, though this would require decisive action by the Security Council, which seems unlikely at present. Since any intervention would require the consent of all sides, the interveners would need to have contact with Hamas.

The Options

Stepped-up international intervention on the ground (by parties other than Israel) could take many forms. Different options address different demands, be they strategic or humanitarian.

* Border force: In order to prevent a widening of the conflict and to halt the flow of weapons, an international force could be limited to an Egypt-Gaza border force (Bob, 2008). Such a force—much more robust than the present EU monitoring mission—would not penetrate into Gaza, and would have no mandate to maintain law and order. Israel favors this approach, but has said it expects such a force to be able to confront Hamas. If such a force could succeed, some Israelis have suggested that similar models could be used at the Gaza-Israel crossings, or in northeast Gaza to prevent rocket attacks.

* Other Options: Humanitarian concerns are less likely to lead to intervention in the short term, particularly given Israel's long-standing desire to avoid a serious humanitarian crisis. But should Hamas fail to establish order, or to reach informal understandings with Israel on assistance and access, or should Israel and other outside parties fail to ensure a minimum degree of human security for Gazans, other intervention scenarios—including safe havens, armed aid delivery, and ultimately some form of international trusteeship—could enter into the debate.

Obstacles to All Intervention Scenarios

All intervention scenarios face daunting obstacles, most notably the hostile, unpredictable environment on the ground and the refusal of key international actors to deal with Hamas, whose cooperation would be needed if an international force is deployed.

Fresh from victory and flush with newfound power, Hamas is in no mood to cede authority to outside ...