HUBBERT'S PEAK

Where in the World Will Our Energy Come From?

Where in the World Will Our Energy Come From?

Introduction

Hubbert's peak is the point at which an oil field or geographic region reaches its maximum production capacity. Hubbert's peak is named after Marion King Hubbert, a highly respected geophysicist and petroleum geologist. According to Hubbert, oil production from a given field plotted over time resembles a bell curve. Production from a newly exploited field can rise quickly because of the natural pressurization of the field; as oil is extracted over time, the field's pressure drops (Deffeyes, 2001).

Discussion and Analysis

Hubbert's peak can be estimated for a given oil field, for a geographic region, or for the entire globe. Oil helped fuel the Industrial Revolution, and because it remains a primary energy source fueling the modern global growth economy, peak oil in nations, regions, and the world has important economic and geopolitical implications. According to Colin J. Campbell and other respected petroleum geologists, soon global demand for oil will outstrip global extraction and supply. The long-term implications of declining oil production are immense.

Hubbert's peak also applies to natural gas production. Oil and gas are produced under the same geological conditions and can occur together in geological formations. Fields that contain higher proportions of natural gas tend to lie deeper in the Earth's crust than do fields that predominantly contain oil. Natural gas can also be produced from coal beds—a form of gas known as coal-bed methane. Because natural gas can be converted to liquids, the timing of peak gas is likely to be influenced by demand for liquid hydrocarbon fuels.

Social and Economic Implications of Hubbert's Peak in Oil and Gas Production

Peak oil and gas have the potential to create devastating effects in terms of food production, particularly if world population continues to grow. ...