How probability, odds, and expected value apply to casino gaming

Introduction

Although it is possible to win big on occasion while playing games on online casinos, it is quite an impossible task to ensure that the player regularly post such winnings. If this were possible then no online casino would be able to remain in business. Every casino ensures that its business is viable by having a house edge on all of the games it offers. Every casino game offers the player a particular probability of winning. This makes it difficult for players to evaluate the stakes that they can afford to place on the game. If there is a high probability of winning, people can bet a sizeable sum but on games that offer a very small winning it is best for them to have only minimum exposure. It is very important for the player to have a reasonably accurate idea of what a person can expect to win or lose when they play a game. In probability theory, this is represented by the term described as Expected Value (Agresti, 89).

True Odds

To understand better why the house edge of online casinos is a disadvantage to the player, it is necessary to know more about the odds offered by them. Casinos do not typically offer true odds on the game. To understand odds, let us imagine a game where the roll of a die determines a win or loss. If the player correctly guess the number that will come out on top, the player win. With each roll there is one chance in six that the number the player expect will come up on top. So, if the player bet X amount of money on a specific number turning up, then a casino that offers 6X if the player are right is giving the player true odds. But, in reality, casinos will only offer 5X for this wager. This deficit makes up the house edge.

A game that is based on the roll of a dice or some similar random number selection will always have winnings that are lower than the true odds of the game. Understanding which games have the lowest edge and learning how to minimize the edge makes it possible for the player to get the best chance of winning when the player are playing online. To do this, it is necessary to understand about the Expected Value of the games ...