The Palestinian reconciliation dialogue is one of three important negotiations processes currently mediated by Egypt. The other two are the indirect ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations between Israel and Hamas. But the three processes are strongly interrelated and interdependent.
To maximize chances of success, Egypt did two things. It first hosted a two-day meeting between the representatives of Fateh and Hamas during which the two sides agreed to end public attacks on each other through the media, release prisoners from jails in Gaza and the West Bank and agree on the agenda for a national reconciliation process.
Second, Egypt set obtainable objectives. It wanted and got a joint press statement that set a conciliatory and optimistic tone. It also confined the initial efforts to setting up working groups on a range of outstanding issues--the nature of a national unity government, elections, security reform, PLO reform and reconciliation and redress for families of the victims of intra-Palestinian fighting.
These committees are supposed to start work on March 10 and conclude and present their recommendations to a sixth committee, the Higher Guidance Committee, on March 30. This sixth committee will be composed of Egyptian officials, representatives of the Arab League, independent Palestinian personalities as well as the leaders of Palestinian factions.
So far, the only real changes gleaned by the public are a reduction in the level of hostile public statements by the two sides and the release of a few prisoners. Many Palestinians remain skeptical that there are enough reasons to believe that real progress can be expected in domestic Palestinian relations in addition to the other processes, the ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations with Israel.[1]
The immediate reason for believing in the success of the reconciliation dialogue is the change in the relations and atmosphere between relevant Arab states. The last few weeks have witnessed a realization in many Arab countries, especially Egypt and Saudi Arabia, that the growing rift between Arab countries was not only a factor in domestic Palestinian divisions but also enabled Iran to further enhance its drive for hegemony in the Arab world.
Hamas is a pragmatic political movement that reads political developments intelligently. It has been receiving signals from its allies that reconciliation at this juncture is advisable. In addition, Hamas has been reading public opinion in Gaza in the right way. Even while the Palestinian and Arab publics are still admiring the Hamas "victory", the people of Gaza have been critical of the way Hamas handled the situation during the war and the fact that none of the political objectives, especially ending the siege on Gaza, were achieved.
Everything in the Israeli-Palestinian and Palestinian-Palestinian spheres is connected these days: Gaza ceasefire talks, Israel-Hamas prisoner exchange talks, the new international aid effort for Gaza, the Gaza crossings issue and renewed Palestinian unity talks. The complexities of the situation are not easy to unravel. Yet for Israel, for moderate Palestinians and Arabs and for the international community, one truth must stand out: the emergence, out of this confluence ...