GUN CONTROL AND VIOLENCE

Gun Control and Violence

Gun Control and Violence

Introduction

The news that criminals are becoming increasingly well armed, coupled with the television images of storekeepers defending their property with firearms in hand, has motivated economists and other policy analysts to increase their efforts to understand the market for deadly weapons and the related criminal activity. The purpose of this article is to formulate an economic model of guns, crime, and gun control measure. A great deal of empirical research has been conducted on firearms, violence, and gun control (e.g., Kates; Kleck 1984; Kleck; Kleck; Kleck; Lott and Wright), but this is one of the first attempts at formal modeling. The goals of this modeling effort are to set out a simple set of equations that captures the primary features of the policy debate, and then use them to examine the likely effects of changes in crime and gun control policy on crime rates and gun ownership. The model is expressed using the conventional mathematics of economics.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report that there were 35,957 deaths in the United States in 1995 by firearms, which was an increase of 13.8 percent over the total of 31,606 for 1985 as reported by Kleck (1991). Some 51.5 percent of the deaths in 1995 were suicides, and 44 percent were homicides. Accidental deaths were 3.4 percent of the total, and the remaining 1.1 percent was of unknown causes. Of the 19,645 homicides in total, 67.8 percent were committed with firearms. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF) estimated that there were 228 million guns in civilian hands in the United States in 1995, or 877 per 1,000 populations (including children). In other words, it is estimated that there is more than one gun per adult in private hands in the United States. With so many guns in private hands, perhaps it is remarkable that there are not more shootings. As it is, in 1995 there were fifteen deaths per 100,000 guns. The U.S. death rate by firearms was 13.7 per 100,000 persons in 1995, compared to 1.47 in Germany and .07 in Japan.

One motivating factor for this study was the empirical study by Lott and Mustard (1997) of the effects of state laws giving citizens the right to carry concealed handguns. The expansion of the right of citizens to carry concealed guns is notable. Lott and Mustard (1997)(:4) pointed out that, in 1986, nine states had “… laws requiring authorities to issue, without discretion, concealed-weapons permits to qualified applicants.” Another fourteen states had laws permitting local discretion with regard to the issuing of such permits. By 1996, the number states with right-to-carry laws had increased by twenty-two (from nine to thirty-one). Only two of these twenty-two states (Louisiana and South Carolina) previously had a law permitting local discretion. It is obvious that many legislators around the nation think that right-to-carry laws will deter crime.

The plan of the study was: (1) to discuss the demand for guns for recreational use, ...