CONTROL

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Table of Contents

Introduction3

Project Evaluation and Management5

Results and discussion10

A Real Case Study25

Conclusion and Discussion31

Refeerences32

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Introduction

The combined effects of the depletion of fossil fuels and thegradually emerging consciousness about environmental degradationhave given the first priority to the use of renewable alternativeenergy resources in the 21st century. The main advantages ofrenewable energy are the absence of harmful emissions and theconversion of infinite availability of renewable resources intoelectricity [1].

Environment-friendly renewable energies likehydraulic energy, wind energy, and solar energy have receivedincreasing attention as alternative means of meeting global energydemands. Specifically, the rapid development in solar and windenergy technology has made it the most promising alternative toconventional energy systems in recent years [2,3].

In a single year in 2008, the global wind power industryinstalled a capacity of 27GW, 28.8% growth, and the cumulativeglobal wind power capacity has grown to 120.8GW [4,5]. In China,with potential capacity of 250GW, the installed capacity of windpower was stably increased from 84, 90, 67, 93, 134, 756, 1.3GW,5.9GW to 12.2GW for year 2000 through year 2008 [5,6]. Inaddition, the solar availability in China is excellent, with more thantwo-thirds of the areas having 2200 h of sunshine a year and anannual solar radiation exceeding 5860 MJ/m2 [7]. In the attempt toencourage the installation of renewable and sustainable energy in China, Renewable Energy Law (REL), into force in January 2006, stipulated that renewable energy must contribute 10% of the national energy supply by year 2020 [8,9]. The REL is administrated by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and is implemented by governments at the regional and local levels. Nevertheless, decisions on regional targets will be based upon regional circumstances such as the availability of renewable energy [10].It is foreseeable that the move to generating electricity through solar energy and wind power will attract private associations, political groups, and electric power companies to generate power on a large scale in recent years. A drawback of the two energy resources is the unpredictable nature and dependence on weather.

Even though the problems can be partially confronted by using the strengths of one source to overcome the weakness of the other, the complexity of integrating these two resources together makes the hybrid solar-wind generation systems more difficult to analyze [11]. Some optimization techniques, such as graphical construction method [12], probabilistic approach [13], iterative technique [14], and genetic algorithm [11], have been applied to assess the economic feasibility of a hybrid solar-wind power generation project by benefit and cost analysis. However, there has not been any work that describes and analyzes such an important topic based on benefits, opportunities, costs and risks simultaneously.

Therefore, this paper tries to analyze the critical success criteria and develop an integrated framework to help evaluate solar-wind power generation projects. In conventional analytic hierarchy process (AHP), pair wise comparison of relative criteria based on experts' opinions is applied to rank the final priority. However, synthesizing the positive criteria of benefits (B) and opportunities (O) and the negative criteria of costs (C) and risks (R) with rating calculation is a more comprehensive way to deal with ...