CATASTROPHE PREPARATION AND RESPONSE

Catastrophe Preparation and Response



Catastrophe Preparation and Response

Introduction

Global catastrophes (events that cause the death of more than a quarter of world population) can credibly be caused through either natural events or through human activity. Indeed global catastrophes due to natural events have occurred several times in human history with devastating consequences both in terms of human life and social organisation (Morrison, 2004, 78). The probability of naturally caused global catastrophe events is high, with an average separation of around a thousand years and have a typical mortality at least a third of the population. This makes the probability of death caused by a natural global catastrophe 0.024 that is five times larger than the probability of death in a road accident in the UK. (Morrison, 2004, 78)

Catastrophe Preparation and Response

To the risk of natural events must now be added the risk of anthropogenic catastrophes. The ability of mankind to produce effects on a global scale is recently acquired and is growing rapidly. It follows that the probability of an anthropogenic global catastrophe cannot be determined from history or reliably from analysis and is a matter of opinion. However, many works considering current threats place the probability much higher than the historical natural figures—for example, Rees suggests a 0.5 probability. (Morrison, 2004, 78)

Given the high probability of a global catastrophe, and that in addition to the large mortality, these events also put the fabric of society at risk; it has been argued that this should be among the highest priority of governments.

Previous work has drawn attention both to the complexity of global catastrophe events and to the commonality of the agents involved regardless of the cause, enabling some blanket preparations to cover a wide range of possible events. A correctly targeted capability can be a “comprehensive insurance cover” for many potential threats. (Hempsell, 2004, 13)

Given that global catastrophes, by definition, encompass the whole of the Earth, such provisions need to be of a global scale and be as immune as possible to the chain of events. Elsewhere, it has been argued that these requirements are best met by space industrialisation which can be the most effective response to the risks involved and should be the key focus of space infrastructure development. This paper looks specifically at the role space generated power can play in this regard.

The potential role of a space power capability falls into two broad classes. The first class is the direct use of energy produced by the systems to directly deal with the undesirable consequences of a developing catastrophe event. The second class of impact is consequential; the technology and infrastructure required to implement a significant space power capacity will, by serendipity, significantly affect the general capability to address global catastrophe events. (Hempsell, 2004, 13)

In his seminal paper on Solar Power Satellites (SPSs), in which the “classic” space power concept was first technically outlined, Glasier argued their role in overcoming many of the potential anthropogenic threats by removing human dependence on energy from the carbon ...