ANALYSIS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE

Analysis of the Business Cycle

Analysis of the Business Cycle

There were 2.5 million job openings on the last business day of October 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The job openings rate was unchanged over the month at 1.9 percent. The openings rate has held relatively steady since March 2009. The hires rate (3.0 percent) and the separations rate (3.2 percent) were essentially unchanged and remained low. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector by industry and geographic region.

The job openings rate was unchanged in October at 1.9 percent. After falling steeply from mid-2007 through February 2009, the job openings rate has been steady at 1.8 percent or 1.9 percent since March 2009. The number of job openings fell by 2.3 million from the most recent peak in June 2007 to April 2009 but has declined by only 7,000 since. The job openings rate was essentially unchanged in every industry and region in October.

Over the 12 months ending in October, the job openings rate (not seasonally adjusted) decreased for total nonfarm, total private, and government. The job openings rate also decreased in many industries: mining and logging; durable goods manufacturing; nondurable goods manufacturing; retail trade; transportation, warehousing, and utilities; information; educational services; health care and social assistance; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and state and local government. The job openings rate decreased in 3 of the 4 regions—Midwest, Northeast, and South.

Table A: Job openings, hires, and total separations by industry, seasonally adjusted

1 Includes mining and logging, information, financial activities, and

other services, not shown separately.

2 Includes wholesale trade and transportation, warehousing, and utilities, not shown separately.

3 Includes federal government, not shown separately.

p = preliminary.

The hires rate was essentially unchanged in October at 3.0 percent. The rate has remained between 3.0 percent and 3.2 percent since February 2009. The hires level fell by 1.5 million from the most recent peak in July 2006 to March 2009 but has declined by only 133,000 since. The hires rate was essentially unchanged in every industry and region in October.

Over the 12 months ending in October, the hires rate (not seasonally adjusted) declined for total nonfarm and total private. The hires rate decreased over the 12 months for wholesale trade; retail trade; information; accommodation and food services; and state and local government. The rate increased for federal government. The hires rate fell over the past 12 months in the Midwest and South. (See table 6.)

The total separations, or turnover, rate was little changed in October and remained low at 3.2 percent. The total separations rate (not seasonally adjusted) decreased over the 12 months ending in October for total nonfarm and total private. Total separations includes quits (voluntary separations), layoffs and discharges (involuntary separations), and other separations (including retirements). The quits rate can serve as a measure of workers' willingness or ability to change jobs. The quits rate was essentially unchanged in October ...