Critical Analysis of 'Armies and Revolutions by Zoltan Barany'

Critical Analysis of 'Armies and Revolutions by Zoltan Barany'

Summary of Article

Military is the foremost institution maintained by states, for without military influential people who back up democratic control, consolidation of democracy cannot be done (Barany, 2012; Islam et. al., 2002). Similarly, a crucial element in determining the failure or success of revolutions is the response of national armed forces to the revolution. Zoltan Barany, in his article- Armies and Revolutions, lays out template for comprehending responses of military to revolution. The latest article of Zoltan Barany, that has been published this year in Journal of Democracy's April issue, is drawn from his current book project, 'Armies and Revolutions'. Zoltan Barany outlines the variables involved in making accurate predictions about what soldiers will do when the fate of a regime hangs in the balance. He analyses the aspects that mould militaries' responses to revolutions. He presents assessment tools to predict likely response of soldiers to a popular uprising, i.e., what are the ways for making predictions accurately regarding the possible actions of soldiers, when a regime's fate hangs in the balance; and what controls whether military back up the old regime, support the insurgents, divide their backing among the two parties, or rather supporting any party try to stay on the sidelines. He mentions that the response of army is not the only predictor of whether a revolution will be successful in superseding the existing regime. However, the backing of military or at least its impartiality toward the revolution is an essential element for success of revolution. Accordingly, if the army's reaction could be predicted to a revolution, chances are there that we can speculate about prospects of that revolution. For example, the military supported revolutions of Tunisia and Egypt that were originally got underway by the regimes of dictators; troops divided in Libya and Yemen, some backing up the cause of rebels, while some staying loyal to the administration; and in Syria and Bahrain, the armed forces strongly strengthened the regime already in place (Barany, 2011).

He adverts that revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East have reconfirmed that revolutions are poorly predicted by social scientists, intelligence analysts and politicians. He refers to the role of the military in the revolutionary success, remarking that a revolution may lead to failure, if the military stays coherent and remains devoted to the status quo government. He argues that a more wide-ranging approach will result in an exact prediction of likely reaction of the army to a revolution. Barany categorizes factors, responsible for determining whether the old regime or a revolution will be supported by military, into four categories. The four sources that impact the response of army include the military establishment itself, the state, society, and the external environment. Since the prime interest here is the reaction of national armed forces to revolutions; that's why, state, society, and external factors are also considered from the perspective of army. The leading determinants of how generals ...